- Keynote on Methods for the Identification of Emerging Risks.
- Chair of Discussion Group on Methods for the Identification of Emerging Risks.
EFSA’s 15th Scientific Colloquium – Emerging Risks (Parma, Italy)
In a rapidly changing world, governments are frequently confronted with unforeseen crises as well as longer term challenges arising from a broad range of domains. As a consequence, policy makers are now becoming increasingly aware of the importance of having robust systems in place to identify emerging risks at their early inception. Ideally, such a system would provide an opportunity for risk assessors to undertake their full risk characterization, and for risk managers to put in place strategies for prevention and control, possibly avoiding unnecessary scares at a population level.
EFSA is developing a methodological framework, including a data monitoring capacity, data filtering methodology and networking structures to identify emerging risks and drivers of emerging risks in a timely fashion and to communicate these to the risk manager.
The objective of this Colloquium is to bring together international experts from different sectors related to food safety for an open scientific debate on key issues related to the identification of emerging risks, as defined by EFSA in 2007 (Definition and description of emerging risks within the EFSA’s mandate).
The main objective is to provide inputs for the development of EFSA’s methodological framework for emerging risks identification.
Discussions will focus on four main topics, namely on available methods to identify emerging risks, strategic sources of information and strategies for data collection, identification of drivers of change as underling causes of emerging risks, and on opportunities for the establishment of an international network to communicate on emerging risks.
The meeting was structured to enable participants to reach conclusions and make recommendations in small groups, focusing the discussions on four specific topics after a short plenary session with few introductory presentations. The discussion groups (DGs) were focused on the following themes:
DG 1 – Methods for the identification of emerging risks
DG 2 – Identification of data types and sources for the identification of emerging risks
DG 3 – How to build an international network, and to communicate successfully with the risk managers on emerging risks
DG 4 – Potential drivers of change – an expert opinion elicitation
For the Colloquium agenda, please click here
EFONET Workshop “Integration of quantitative and qualitative methodologies for European energy foresight” (Berlin, Germany)
(Berlin, Germany) Keynote on Foresight Methodology for the Energy Sector at the EFONET Workshop on “Better integration of quantitative and qualitative methodologies on European level” organised by IZT – Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment (Over 30 participants).
Letter from Emerald Literati Network
Dear Rafael Popper,
Emerald Literati Network
2009 Awards for Excellence
Every year Emerald invites each journal’s Editorial Team to nominate what they believe has been that title’s Outstanding Paper and up to three Highly Commended Papers from the previous 12 months. Your paper has been included among these and I am pleased to inform you that your article entitled How are foresight methods selected published in foresight has been chosen as an Outstanding Paper Award Winner at the Literati Network Awards for Excellence 2009.
The award winning papers are chosen following consultation amongst the journal’s Editorial Team, many of whom are eminent academics or managers. Your paper has been selected as it was one of the most impressive pieces of work the team has seen throughout 2008.
The Awards for Excellence 2009 can be found at the following site:
Please feel free to contact me with any questions you may have and once again, thank you for writing for an Emerald journal and congratulations on your success!
External Relations Assistant
Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Purpose – This paper addresses a challenging topic, which in both academic and professional literatures has been widely discussed but mainly from one single angle – that is, how to select foresight methods. From that point of view researchers and consultants promote (even if unintentionally) the use of particular methods. Here the question of selection is raised from a different perspective: how are foresight methods selected?
Design/methodology/approach – The guiding ‘‘theory’’ is that a better understanding of the fundamental attributes of foresight methods and their linkages to the core phases of a foresight process, together with the identification of possible patterns in the selection of methods, will provide useful insights as to how the selection of methods is carried out.
Findings – So far the selection of foresight methods has been dominated by the intuition, insight, impulsiveness and – sometimes – inexperience or irresponsibility of practitioners and organisers. This paper reveals that the selection of foresight methods (even if not always coherent or systematic) is a multi-factor process, and needs to be considered as such.
Practical implications – The results can be utilised by lecturers and students to describe and understand better the use of foresight methods, and by organisers of foresight (including practitioners) to better inform decisions during the design of (hopefully) more coherent methodological frameworks.
Originality/value – The paper combines practical concepts and frameworks (such as the Foresight Process and the Foresight Diamond) with innovative analyses to represent and visualise better the combination of methods in 886 case studies, for example introducing the Methods Combination Matrix (MCM) to examine the dynamics of a mix of methods.
Keywords – Research methods, Design, Forward planning, Strategic planning, Creative thinking, Decision making
Type – Research paper
In this comprehensive and critical Handbook, cross-cutting analytical chapters explore the emergence and positioning of foresight, common approaches and methods, organisational issues, and the scope for policy transfer and evaluation. Leading experts and practitioners contribute chapters analysing experiences in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the USA, Japan, China, Latin America, small European nations, Nordic countries and selected developing countries. The book concludes with consideration of the future of foresight itself.
To read more, please click here.
The Handbook of Technology Foresight was selected by Edward Elgar as the Book of the Month in April 2008. To purchase, go to: http://www.e-elgar.co.uk/Bookentry_Main.lasso?id=3977