Technology Foresight for Public Funding of Innovation: Methods and Best Practices

In times of growing uncertainties and complexities, anticipatory thinking is essential for policymakers. Technology foresight explores the longer-term futures of Science, Technology and Innovation. It can be used as a tool to create effective policy responses, including in technology and innovation policies, and to shape technological change.

In this report we present six anticipatory and technology foresight methods that can contribute to anticipatory intelligence in terms of public funding of innovation: the Delphi survey, genius forecasting, technology roadmapping, large language models used in foresight, horizon scanning and scenario planning.

Each chapter provides a brief overview of the method with case studies and recommendations.

The insights from this report show that only by combining different anticipatory viewpoints and approaches to spotting, understanding and shaping emergent technologies, can public funders such as the European Innovation Council improve their proactive approaches to supporting ground-breaking technologies. In this way, they will help innovation ecosystems to develop.

Contents

Introduction
By Lucia Vesnic-Alujevic, João Farinha and Alexandre Pólvora

Potential uses of the Delphi method in innovation funding institutions
By Per Dannemand Andersen

Individual intuition and communicative charisma as enablers of futures envisioning: ‘genius forecasting’ vs ‘forecasting geniuses’
By Marco Bevolo

Roadmapping for strategy, foresight and policy
By Imoh Ilevbare

The role of large language models in science and technology policy
By Eirini Malliaraki

The role of horizon scanning in anticipating and monitoring emerging technologies and disruptive innovations
By Rafael Popper

Using scenarios to assess innovations
By Matthew J. Spaniol

Citation: Dannemand Andersen, P., Bevolo, M., Ilevbare, I., Malliaraki, E., Popper, R. and Spaniol, M.J., Technology Foresight for Public Funding of Innovation: Methods and Best Practices, Vesnic Alujevic, L., Farinha, J. and Polvora, A. editor(s), Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2023, doi:10.2760/759692, JRC134544.

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC134544

Contributing to a better understanding of the connection between sustainability and innovation

Governance and Management of Sustainable Innovation

Learning from Experience to Shape the Future

Editors: Martini, Mattia, Hölsgens, Rick, Popper, Rafael (Eds.)

Click here to order the book

• Presents a common framework for the assessment and management of sustainable innovation
• Adopts a multi-stakeholder and cross-country approach
• Provides relevant practical insights for actors involved in governance and management of sustainable innovations

Sustainable innovation (SI) is considered to be a key driver of societal progress in an era of enormous economic, environmental and societal challenges, and the uncertainties and future consequences that come with them. This book provides evidence, insights and reflections related to specific issues of governance, the management of sustainable innovation and applying a multi-level, multi-stakeholder approach to sustainable innovation analysis. Building on the European Commission (EU) funded research project “Public Participation in Developing a Common Framework for the Assessment and Management of Sustainable innovation” (CASI), it presents tools for assessing and managing sustainable innovation, and reflects on SI-related policies as well as citizens’ aspirations. The book is intended for scholars in the field of sustainable innovation, as well as to policymakers, innovators, students and citizens.

About the Editors

Mattia Martini is Assistant Professor in Management at the University of Milano-Bicocca and holds a PhD in Information Society from the same university. He has worked as researcher at CRISP – Interuniversity Research Center on Public Services – since 2006. He has participated in different national and European-founded projects related to the governance of labour market services, the human capital development systems and the management of sustainable innovation. His main research interests relate to organization and management, with particular reference to social and personal services in the fields of employment and healthcare, and a focus on human capital and employability development. Recently, his research interests focus on employee welfare services-performance relationship, the role of collaboration for sustainable innovation, and sustainable business models in the agro-food sectors.

Rick Hölsgens works as social scientist at TU Dortmund University (Social Research Center) on topics at the crossroads of social innovation and sustainability research. He has a bachelor degree in Industrial Design from Eindhoven University of Technology and master degrees (MA and MSc) in Science and Technology Studies from Maastricht University. In 2016 he obtained his PhD from Groningen University in the area of economic history (dissertation title: Energy Transitions in the Netherlands: Sustainability Challenges in a Historical and Comparative Perspective). His main research interests are sustainability transitions and social innovation, both from a contemporary and historical perspective.

Rafael Popper is Principal Scientist in Business, Innovation and Foresight at VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd. Dr Popper is also Director of Executive Education in Foresight and Sustainable Futures and at the Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIOIR) of the Alliance Manchester Business School of The University of Manchester in the UK. In 2018 he was appointed Professor of Foresight and Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) Governance at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Russia. He has over twenty years of experience working as foresight and innovation policy analyst and consultant for several international organizations including the European Commission, ECLAC, UNIDO, UNDP, World Bank, United Nations Economic and Social Council, UN-REDD, as well as for several government and business organisations in Europe, Latin America, Africa, Asia and Australia.

Table of contents (10 chapters)

• Sustainable Innovation Assessment and Management Framework: Principles, Methodology and Practice

  Pages 3-39

  Rafael Popper, Monika Popper, and Guillermo Velasco

• Sustainable Innovation: Definitions, Priorities and Emerging Issues

  Pages 41-56

  Ales Lipnik and Maja Cergol Lipnik

• Types of Innovation for Sustainability: The Role of Social Innovations

  Pages 57-72

  Rick Hölsgens and Jürgen Schultze

• Exploring the Role of Stakeholder Engagement for the Development of Sustainable Innovation Strategies

  Pages 75-96

  Mattia Martini, Monica Carminati, and Elisabetta Marafioti

• Targeted Forward-Looking Citizen Engagement: The Case of Sustainable Innovation

  Pages 97-119

  Petteri Repo, Kaisa Matschoss, Bjørn Bedsted, Zoya Damianova, and Ventseslav Kozarev

• Stakeholder Engagement as a Tool to Support Sustainability-Oriented Innovation in the Public Sector

  Pages 121-135

  Benedetta Trivellato, Monica Carminati, and Mattia Martini

• Fostering Sustainable Innovation: Insights from Three European Food Banks

  Pages 139-160

  Laura Mariani, Dario Cavenago, and Elisabetta Marafioti

• Why Sustainable Social Innovations (Do Not) Diffuse? An Alternative View to Social Innovation Dynamics

  Pages 161-179

  Rick Hölsgens

• An Inductive and Multidimensional Approach to Sustainable Innovation: Evidence from Multiple Case Studies

  Pages 181-198

  Guillermo Velasco, Monika Popper, and Rafael Popper

• Towards a Hybrid Framework for Sustainable Innovation

  Pages 199-205

  Tiina Pajula and Rafael Popper

Free course on sustainable innovation assessment & management

Sustainable Innovation Assessment and Management: Widening Horizons on climate action, environment, resource efficiency and raw materials.

Free online course on sustainable innovation assessment and management concepts, practices, key lessons and policy messages. Get inspired!

Course outline

The CASI project aims at assessing Sustainable Innovations (SI) that respond to Societal Challenge 5 of Horizon 2020, namely ‘Climate action, environment, resource efficiency and raw materials’, in order to develop a framework supporting better management of SI initiatives. This FREE online course offers a comprehensive review of sustainable innovation related topics organised around 6 Modules and 12 Units.

Module 1: CASI-F in action

• Unit 1: CASI-F principles and methodology – A five-step guide to future-proof action plans: Understand the why, what and how of sustainable innovation assessment and management.
• Unit 2: CASI-F Tools – Web-based solutions supporting open innovation practices: Use CASI-F tools and optimize your innovation potential through learning by doing.

Module 2: Sustainable Innovation Concepts

• Unit 3: SI assessment of innovations, systems and issues – A must-have set of criteria for more holistic sustainability appraisals: Learn about 7 types of innovations and new assessment indicators.
• Unit 4: SI management actions, dimensions and key aspects – A comprehensive set of decision-support concepts: Discover different types of managerial needs and innovative ways of framing solutions.

Module 3: Sustainable Innovation in the EU

• Unit 5: SI evolution in EC FP5, FP6 and FP7 – An overview of European Commission funded sustainability-oriented efforts between 1998-2013: Compare objectives, priorities and budgets.
• Unit 6: SI priorities in H2020 SC5 – A guide to the EC Societal Challenge on Climate action, Environment, Resource efficiency and Raw materials: Explore SI priorities and more.

Module 4: Sustainable Innovation State-of-the-art

• Unit 7: State-of-the-art of SI by type of innovation – Key results from the assessment of 500+ SI by type: Zoom into their objectives, priorities, multi-systemic impacts and sectoral relevance.
• Unit 8: A quadruple helix approach to R&I agendas for SI – Top 10 research and innovation agendas for sustainability: Recognise the importance of the quadruple helix of SI actors in agenda-setting.

Module 5: Sustainable Innovation Pilot Study

• Unit 9: SI actions and meta-actions from the CASI pilots – A set of 55 lessons resulting from the 1st phase of CASI-F applied to 43 pilots: Learn from innovators’ most common managerial choices.
• Unit 10: 150 meta-tasks from CASI Action Roadmaps – 150 systematically generated lessons from the 2nd phase of CASI-F: Improve key context, people, process and impact aspects of innovation.

Module 6: Sustainable Innovation Advice

• Unit 11: Lessons from the analysis of 1700+ SI critical issues – 60 Tweet-like recommendations from technological, economic, social, environmental, political, ethical and spatial perspectives. Get inspired!
• Unit 12: Policy messages on SI assessment and management – 18 policy messages to better manage and assess sustainable innovation: Benefit from joint lessons and views on the way forward for CASI-F.

Certification

To qualify for a Certificate on ‘Sustainable Innovation Assessment and Management’ , signed by the Course Director from The University of Manchester, you should study and complete all modules (each lasting a maximum of 90 minutes) and score at least 60% in the self-assessment activities provided under each unit. Detailed information about your progress and score will be available under ‘My course’ tab of your user profile where you will also be able to retake each module (no more than once), if needed.

• Certificate for satisfactorily completed course – By completing the full course with a 60-79% score in the self-assessment tasks you will receive a certificate of satisfactory completion.
• Certificate for outstandingly completed course – By completing the full course with a score of 80% or above in the self-assessment tasks you will receive a certificate of outstanding completion.

Learning outcomes

While the CASI Sustainable Innovation Course offers answers and insights related to four key dimensions of sustainable innovation management (i.e. Context, People, Process, and Impact), one of the primary objectives of the training course is to focus on the ‘People’ dimension, and, in particular, on its two key aspects of ‘aptitude’ and ‘attitude’, which are necessary to promote and more effectively manage sustainable innovations. With this in mind, upon completion of this course, you will understand what sort of prerequisites, knowledge and leadership, among other skills, are needed to improve the sustainability of different types of innovations.

Course Director

• Dr. Rafael Popper – For further information, contact: Rafael.Popper@manchester.ac.uk

Course Scientific Coordinators

• Rafael Popper, Monika Popper and Guillermo Velasco

Course Technical Implementation

• Futures Diamond

Course Contents Authors

• (CZ) Futures Diamond
• (DE) Technical University of Dortmund
• (PT) Inova+
• (UK) Coventry University Entreprise
• (UK) The University of Manchester

Note: The online course self-assessment exercises were built and designed for desktop and laptop only. However, the course contents can also be accessed from mobile devices.

CASI Conference Exploring Policy Options for Responsible Research, Sustainability and Innovation

PUBLIC PARTICIPATION FOR RESEARCH, PRACTICE AND POLICY

CASI Conference 2016

The CASI policy conference focused on best public participation and sustainable innovation practices and identified common European priorities on how to stimulate societal participation for sustainable innovation activities in European regions, scientific institutions, SMEs and other societal actors. We brought together a broad range of experts, stakeholders, policy-makers, entrepreneurs, regional authorities and Commission officials. The CASI conference focused on the intersection of public participation and sustainable innovation.

In the first half of the CASI project and based on key lessons learned from the assessment of 500+ SI initiatives, a research team from The University of Manchester developed the following preliminary definition of sustainable innovation (SI):

• Sustainable innovation is ‘any incremental or radical change in the social, service, product, governance, organisational, system or marketing landscape that leads to positive environmental, economic and social transformation without compromising the needs, welfare and wellbeing of current and future generations’.
  • Source:  Popper et al. (2016) Sustainable Innovation Conceptual Framework.

However, as the project evolved with new lessons learned from management actions and roadmaps linked to 40+ sustainable innovation pilot studies, The University of Manchester felt the need to take a more systemic approach, which helped the CASI project move towards a final definition:

• Sustainable innovation is ‘any incremental or radical change in a socio-technical system leading to positive environmental, economic and social transformations without compromising the needs, welfare and wellbeing of current and future generations’.
  • Source:  Popper, R., Velasco, G., Popper, M. (2017) CASI-F: Common Framework for the Assessment and Management of Sustainable Innovation, CASI project report, Deliverable 6.2.

CASI-F

The conference included several sessions, including one on ‘Assessing and Managing Sustainable Innovation: The CASI-F‘.

Session Chairs: Victor van Rij and Rafael Popper

• Public engagement – the holistic approach of the CASI project.
  • Zoya Damianova, ARC Fund
• What is sustainable innovation?  The CASI experience – public engagement for sustainable innovation.
  • Rafael Popper and Guillermo Velasco, University of Manchester
• How to assess and manage Sustainable Innovation? 
  • Rafael Popper and Guillermo Velasco, University of Manchester
• Introduction to the Training Course on Applying CASI-F.
  • Rafael Popper and Guillermo Velasco, University of Manchester
• Discussion

UK Policy Dialogue on Sustainable Innovation & Smart Cities (March 17th, 2016)

The CASI project (http://www.casi2020.eu/) is running a FREE Policy Dialogue on Sustainable Innovation and Smart Cities in Coventry on the 17^th March.

The aim of the workshop is to foster dialogue with policy makers and other key stakeholders on the topic of wider societal engagement in sustainable innovation.

The workshop focuses on Smart Cities policies with structured discussions on key barriers and opportunities to stimulate wider societal engagement in sustainable innovation. Through discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of current policies and praxis we will look to identify areas of improvements or potential strategies that could be undertaken. The session will include a networking buffet lunch.

Click here to download the UK-CASI-Policy-Dialogue agenda.

Date: Thursday 17^th March 2016
Time: 9:30 – 15:00
Venue: Sustainable Building Futures, Engineering & Computing Building, Coventry University, Gulson Road, Coventry, CV1 2JH
Organiser: Coventry University Enterprises Ltd. in collaboration with The University of Manchester.

If you are interested, please register on this link: Policy Dialogues Workshop

Czech Policy Dialogue on Sustainable Innovation (Prague, 10/03/2016)

Date: 10.03.2016.
Duration: From 9.30am until 3pm (including lunch and coffee break).
Location: Technology Centre ASCR (Ve Struhách 1076/27, 160 00 Prague 6).
Organiser: Futures Diamond with contributions from The University of Manchester.

The main purpose of the dialogue is to:

• Facilitate dialogue with policy-makers and other relevant stakeholders (business, NGOs, interest groups and researchers) about ways to strengthen societal engagement in sustainable innovation;
• Explore strengths and weaknesses of current policies and praxis for societal engagement in sustainable innovation;
• Discuss barriers to stimulate societal engagement in sustainable innovation;
• Develop recommendations for policy-makers to be handed over to national political committees and public authorities and to be highlighted at the CASI policy conference in November 2016.

Regarding the focus of the dialogue, we have looked at how the Top 10 research and innovation agendas resulting from the mapped 500+ SI cases (we have in CASIPEDIA and available at http://www.casi2020.eu/casipedia/cases/) are relevant to:

• 22 priorities related to Horizon 2020 Societal Challenge on ‘Climate action, resource efficiency, environment and raw materials’, and
• 27 priorities resulting from a citizens-experts-citizens (CEC) process.

We would also be discussing gaps and potential bridges between these sets of priorities, as well as their relevance to the Top 10 research-priorities voted by the Czech citizens (and inspired by their visions http://www.casi2020.eu/visions-bank/).

Explore the CASI Visions Bank on ‘Sustainable Futures’

A vision, as defined in the CASI project, is a picture or an imagination of a desirable future, which can be based upon hopes and dreams – but also upon concerns and fears in relation to problems or imagined threats, which are not desirable.

The aim of the ‘Visions Bank’ is twofold:

• To openly share the results of a highly participatory citizens engagement process resulting in 50 visions on sustainable futures, with a time span of 30-40 years from now, developed during CASI citizen panels in the following 12 EU countries: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia and the United Kingdom.
• To activate the vision-based track of our CASI framework for the assessment and management of sustainable innovation (CASI-F) so as to allow for a systematic mapping of critical issues (barriers, drivers, opportunities and threats) associated to SI visions, and promote a more public assessment and management of possible actions linked to such issues.

In the following link you will be able to explore the original 50 visions, add your own vision into the ‘Visions bank’ and share your views about the most critical:

http://www.casi2020.eu/visions-bank/

Successful foresight course for CNR (Italy)

The foresight team of the Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR) has successfully delivered a 3-day foresight course for the National Research Council (CNR) in Italy.

The course programme consisted of 16 sessions, including eight lectures, five practical exercises and three interactive discussions:

The eight lectures focused on:

1. Foresight Fundamentals and Methods: A comprehensive review of Foresight Methods, tools and techniques (Delivered by R. Popper)
2. Foresight Fundamentals and Methods: Analysis of the pros and cons of each of the tools and methodologies (Delivered by R. Popper)
3. A detailed examination of top-down vs. bottom-up foresight approaches (Delivered by R. Popper & G. Velasco)
4. Using Interaction: Multi-Stakeholder and WI-WE Workshops – Selected case studies: VERA and iKnow projects (Delivered by R. Popper)
5. Using Expertise: Expert Panels and Interviews (Delivered by R. Popper & G. Velasco)
6. Roadmapping Fundamentals and Applications (Delivered by R. Popper & G. Velasco)
7. Using the results of Foresight: From Anticipating to Recommending Futures (Delivered by R. Popper & G. Velasco)
8. Sustaining impact: On foresight and horizon scanning platforms (Delivered by R. Popper)

The five practical exercises focused on:

1. Process and Methodology
2. Design and management of participatory processes
3. Design and management of expert-based processes
4. Roadmapping
5. Recommendations and Impact

The three interactive discussions focused on:

1. Mixing technocratic and democratic approaches: How could additional tools or techniques add value to the current S&T Foresight Project approach?
2. Strengths and weaknesses of various Foresight approaches with particular reference to the Science and Technology Project approach
3. CNR Foresight vis-à-vis global foresight approaches: How can the S&T Foresight team improve the presentation of the results of the Foresight project? How can stakeholder engagement be improved?

For further information about the CNR Foresight Project, please contact Luisa Tondelli at luisa.tondelli@cnr.it

To see the full course programme, please click here

Mutual-learning sustainable innovation webinar

The videos and presentations of the CASI WEBINAR are now available on the CASI portal and structured around the following sessions:

• Session 1: Why is sustainability a key driver of innovation?
• Session 2: State-of-the-art of sustainable innovation: lessons from a pan-European study
• Session 3: The role of social innovation for sustainability
• Session 4: Public engagement in sustainable innovation
• Session 5: Public participation as a success factor for sustainability
• Session 6: CASI-F: A framework to assess and manage sustainable innovation
• Session 7: CASI-F in action: An application to a case of sustainable innovation

To access the Webinar sessions, please visit http://www.casi2020.eu/library/webinar/

Pre-piloting of the CASI Framework for the Assessment and Management of Sustainable Innovation

Ahead of the CASI national stakeholders workshops that would be taking place in 12 European countries in the second half of October, sixteen of CASI country correspondents gathered in Copenhagen (pictures below) at the end of September in order to pre-pilot the CASI Framework (CASI-F) for the assessment and management of sustainable innovation.

The workshop was led by CASI partners: Centre for Social Innovation (ZSI), Applied Research and Communications Fund (ARC Fund) and The University of Manchester (UNIMAN) who ensured a positive and stimulating working environment from the beginning until the end of the meeting.

After the introduction and presentation of the CASI Framework the participants were assigned tasks, the final outcome of which was obtaining valuable feedback directed at improving the usability of the framework.

The framework received very welcoming and constructive opinions from the CASI country correspondents, which helped us further improve the concept in time for the upcoming national stakeholders workshops.

We are now looking forward to hearing stakeholders views from the following stakeholders groups: business, governance, civil society, research and education, and will be back with more news after the workshops.